CUHK and Oxford create groundbreaking diabetes prediction model for Chinese patients
CU Medicine has developed the first Chinese Diabetes Outcome Model, following a decade-long research collaboration with Oxford.
A decade-long collaboration between CU Medicine and the University of Oxford (Oxford) has created a predictive model that could have far-reaching implications for diabetes care across Asia. The Chinese Diabetes Outcome Model (CDOM) is the first long-term risk prediction tool specifically tailored for Chinese people with type 2 diabetes.
Compared to Europeans, Asians are typically more prone to developing diabetes at a younger age and lower body weight, and are more likely to have stroke or kidney-related complications and are more responsive to certain treatments. These differences in risk profiles and disease trajectories highlight the need for population-specific models to inform healthcare policy and treatment choice priorities in Asian countries.
A model that matches Chinese and Asian risk profiles
Leveraging data from over 21,000 patients in the Hong Kong Diabetes Register (HKDR), the CU Medicine team adapted Oxford’s well-established diabetes modelling approach, originally built using UK data, to reflect the risk patterns of Chinese and other Asian populations. The resulting CDOM model uses routine clinical information such as age, sex, blood pressure, lipids, long-term blood sugar levels, kidney function, weight and medical history to estimate lifetime risks for 10 major complications including ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, heart disease, heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, lower limb amputation, end-stage kidney disease, severe hypoglycaemia, cancer and premature death.
To validate the CDOM’s effectiveness, researchers used data from the HKDR and an independent cohort of 176,210 patients to track outcomes over a period of more than seven years. The predictions were highly consistent with actual patient outcomes, proving the CDOM’s worth as a valuable tool for predicting long-term diabetes progression and the associated healthcare burden, thereby informing policy decisions and resource allocation in diabetes management. The findings have been published in the international journal Diabetes Care.
The CDOM is a valuable tool for predicting long-term diabetes progression and the associated healthcare burden, thereby informing policy decisions and resource allocation in diabetes management.
Promoting better care for diabetes patients across Asia
In addition to influencing high-level policy, the CDOM can support personalised care by integrating risk, cost and quality-of-life information.
Prof. Juliana Chan from the Department of Medicine and Therapeutics at CU Medicine, Director of the Hong Kong Institute of Diabetes and Obesity and the senior investigator of the HKDR and CDOM, explains: ‘By creating different scenarios, a doctor can have a more engaging discussion with his or her patient on how to individualise control of risk factors and select medications to help him or her stay healthy and live a long life.’
Prof. Juliana Lui, a health economist and assistant professor from the Department of Medicine and Therapeutics adds: ‘These models also put whoever is responsible for paying for these treatments, whether public or private, in a better position to allocate resources or design payment plans, making healthcare more accessible, sustainable and affordable.’
CU Medicine and Oxford are now embarking on a strategic partnership to collaborate in health economics and health technology assessment. This work supports Hong Kong’s ambition to become a hub for innovative medicine and integrated healthcare development. The study was funded by the Health and Medical Research Fund and Public Policy Research Funding Scheme of the HKSAR Government and the Asia Diabetes Foundation.
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